From Brazil to the Czech Republic: Dynamics of Influence of the Far-Right
The New Far-Right Narrative - The Russian Connection - U.S. Counterinfluence Efforts
Hey there.
This week, I wanted to share with you what it sometimes feels like to be European. Thinking we have some kind of autonomous voice, being proud of many legal accomplishments regarding the safety of Internet users while safeguarding freedom of expression rights.
And suddenly being plunged into the reality that none of this matters. Because it is just a game, shaped by broader, transnational networks that do not care for the EU’s borders and EU’s laws. From Brazil and Argentine to Russia and China, not forgetting the U.S., far-right transnational networks are actively seeking to undermine the true pillars of democracy. And it feels suffocating.
What to be expected:
From Electoral Fraud to Threat to Freedom of Expression: The New Far-Right Narrative in 2024?
The Framework to Counter Foreign State Information Manipulation
From Electoral Fraud to Threat to Freedom of Expression: The New Far-Right Narrative in 2024?
Last Sunday, former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and the Brazilian far-right organized a beach rally in Rio de Janeiro. As the former President faces the threat of imprisonment due to a series of criminal investigations, notably for the alleged attempt to overthrow the government following his 2022 election defeat, this rally provided him with an opportunity to gather his supporters and show the world their enduring political backing.
During this protest, one notable aspect was the appearance of Elon Musk on signs, thanking him. Thanking him for what exactly?
Elon Musk has recently been hitting the news in Brazil, as Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes has ordered an investigation over the dissemination of defamatory fake news and another probe over possible obstruction, incitement and criminal organization. In response, Elon Musk has accused de Moraes of suppressing free speech.
The use of this narrative “suppressing free speech” is not neutral. It directly refers to an ongoing partisan debate in the United-States, between the desire of absolute free speech and the necessity to combat online harms for the protection of internet users. For further information on the U.S. debate, you can take a look here.
The spill of this narrative from the U.S. to Brazil is not new. During the 2020 U.S. election and the 2022 Brazil election, a connection between far-right supporters in both countries was observed. A connection that is not accidental, but rather one that has been progressively woven over years.
In September 2022, an analysis by Agência Pública already alerted about the Brazilian online ecosystem, which engaged in inauthentic coordinated behavior to support the reelection of Trump from October 2020 to February 2021. The analysis follows the creation and evolution of the hashtag #GoTrumpReeleito, created to connect English-speaking and Brazilian far-right influencers and supporters. On November 4, 2020, the hashtag “exploded” to directly question the results of the election and suggest electoral fraud. This hashtag was a connector between these two ecosystems. Bots and trolls flooded the Brazilian ecosystem with images, memes, and videos supporting the narrative of electoral fraud in the U.S. 2020 election. The online campaign continued to align with the American far-right narrative and on January 6, 2021, it supported the invasion of the Capitol.
In October 2022, Opendemocracy published an article alerting to actions by the U.S. far-right to support the re-election of President Bolsonaro in Brazil. Steve Bannon, Matthew Tyrmand, Mark Ivanyo, and other American far-right influencers were using both online and offline means to bolster Bolsonaro’s campaign. When the results of the Brazilian election were announced, U.S. far-right podcasts and live shows served as fora for amplifying narratives of electoral fraud in the Brazilian election. And when the Brazilian Insurrection took place on January 7, 2023, of course the American far-right amplified the events. Offline, Eduardo Bolsonaro had met several times with Trump’s allies. In Brazil, the alt-right platform Gettr had organized several sponsored political events that unofficially supported Bolsonaro’s election between September 2021 and June 2022.
This brief summary of 2022-2023 online events can help illustrating the journey of a narrative and the dynamics of power that support its importation in other countries.
These dynamics remain very much present in 2024, as evidence by this protest in Rio, which featured the appearance of Elon Musk on signs and his mention during the speech of the former Brazilian president, who said on Sunday in English: “He is the man who had the courage to show … the direction our democracy was going in and how much freedom we have lost”.
This mention of freedom underlines the ongoing shift in narrative. As the far-right prepares for a year of elections, it may have come to realize that pushing the narrative of “electoral fraud” might not be sufficient to sow distrust towards current leaders and democratic institutions. Election officials are preparing for the spread of this narrative and some are demonstrating particular vigor in debunking any misleading narratives regarding the integrity of elections. Spreading accusations of “censorship” and “suppression free speech” may prove to be a more effective strategy, especially in countries where freedom of expression traditionally cones first before privacy and safety.
And the leader of this movement has already emerged. As the Washington Post titles it, Elon Musk is taking his speech fight global. He has met with Argentine President Javier Milei and announced an upcoming meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He also cultivates allies within conservative movements. As Emerson Brooking, Senior fellow at the DFRLab rightly says it, E. Musk represents “a connective tissue between these far-right figures and movements”.
Elon Musk’s meeting with Argentine President and his support of President Bolsonaro reinforce a signal that was highlighted in this newsletter by OSINT expert and VOST volunteer Inês Narciso. These narratives of the Argentine and Brazilian far-right may not be confined to the American continent and may soon spill over into Europe and Asia. Indian elections are underway and the European Parliament elections follow closely.
While we are living a crucial year for the survival of our democratic pillars, the far-right appears to be structuring its strategy to win this year’s elections.
Does Europe Has its Own Voice?
While forces are preparing on the western side of the globe, there is already evidence of collusion between the European far-right and entities coming from the East, from Russia and China.
About a month ago, the European Union was rocked by a scandal. Members of the European Parliament (MEPs), mostly members far-right parties, are being investigated, accused of having received payments from the Russian outlet “Voice of Europe” to promote Russian propaganda. The website has a YouTube channel, as well as accounts on X, Facebook and Telegram. It extended its reach beyond the European Union member states, also leveraging far-right influencers in the Balkans, notably in Serbia.
The website’s YouTube channel hosted a series of interview with far-right European politicians who portrayed the European Union in a negative light. These politicians were not the useful idiots as we sometimes called them. They were wittingly supporting Russian information campaign against the EU.
On April 1st, the Director of the Centre for Democratic Integrity published on X the list of 24 European politicians who were promoted via the outlet. Did they take bribes to do it? Maybe.
This website and its YouTube channel were attributed to Russia by the Czech Republic at the end of March. Sanctions also followed, with the Czech foreign ministry sanctioning Ukrainian oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk, Voice of Europe itself and an individual namedArtem Pavlovich Marchevskyi, presumed to be involved in the operation.
According to the Dutch outlet NRC, the website, which was created years ago, started in the Netherlands. In 2016, it was used during the Dutch Referendum on EU-Ukraine agreement.
I don’t know if you remember this referendum, which asked the Dutch people if they supported a trade agreement between the European Union and Ukraine. The New York Times and StopFake reported on the online and offline manipulative activities. At the time, a team of alleged Ukrainians was invited to participate in public meetings and TV shows to spread narratives that the Ukraine’s government was unworthy of Dutch support. But it turned out that the members of this team were actually from Russia.
During this period, Thierry Baudet (one of the MEPs accused of receiving payments from Russia), was the head of the conservative research group, Forum for Democracy, which became a political party. He spread Russian propaganda on Twitter, posting and amplifying Russian talking points and even resharing a forged story about Ukrainian soldiers’ actions. He completely denied it, preferring to accuse Europe of Russophobia. If you want to see it for yourself, Stopfake covered some examples of tweets and interviews he did in 2016.
Additionally, a YouTube video titled “Appeal of AZOV fighters to the Netherlands on a referendum about EU – Ukraine.” identified by Bellingcat as linked to the IRA likely aimed to intimidate the Dutch people and portray a negative image of Ukraine.
Returning to voice of Europe: One of the initiators was Erik de Vlieger, an entrepreneur based in Amsterdam. Dutch businesswoman Annemiek Ploumen was the owner of Voice of Europe at least until 2020. She claimed to have been approached by the Czech media company that now owns the domain name.
The outlet was registered in Prague in 2016 under the name "Dada-Mapo," and changed its name to its current name in 2023, according to Czech records reported by Support4Partnership. Its director is Polish national Jacek January Jakubczyk.
This is it for now for the connection between the European far-right and Russia.
But just a few days ago, a scandal broke that China is also attempting to interfere in the EU Parliament. Jian Guo, accredited parliamentary assistant of German MeP Maximilian Krah (AfD party), has been arrested over allegations that he had been spying for China.
While it is too soon to make any conclusions, it is reported that Jian Guo organised several trips to China for European deputies. This is a TTP often used by the PCC to recruit partisans and supporters so they would support the party’s position in their countries and multilateral organisations.
So I don’t know about you, but as a European I feel a bit strangulated in this battle for narratives. But hey, that’s not it.
The Framework to Counter Foreign State Information Manipulation
Do you remember the Framework to Counter Foreign State Information Manipulation, published by the United-States State of Department on January 18?
If not, let me refresh quickly your memory: This framework intends to bring democracies closer in the development of their cooperation and capacity building to fight against Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI). It outlines five key policy areas: policies, governance structures, human and technical capacity, civil society, multilateral engagement. While it does not give much details about each policy area, it offers a general framework for addressing FIMI threats.
I have been following the U.S. State Department’s announcements in recent months, and, if I am not mistaken, there has been successively four endorsements of the framework by the United-Kingdom and Canada, Finland, Latvia and very recently Italy. For the three latter countries, the endorsement took the form of a Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. and its ally.
Every time there was a new announcement, I wondered about the reasons behind the choice of each country. Except for Italy, the statement was very generic. There wasn’t much to go on. The UK and Canada made sense, as there are the closest allies. But why Finland, which is already pretty resilient against Russian disinformation? Or Latvia? But now that Italy has joined the club of MoU, it seems to make much more sense.
West, North, East and South. There you have it, Europe’s covered. It could even be better covered with an ally announced in Central Europe. Germany or Poland, are you next?
Perhaps, I am completely hallucinating. Perhaps it is my time at NATO seeing Enhanced Forward Presence everywhere (eFP). However, I still have a good assumption that this framework is being used as a stratcom tool to send a signal to Russia and China.
Will these MoU transformed into effective collaborations to deter these state actors? Again, it is too early to say anything.
But nevertheless, as a European, I feel being manipulated. The U.S. appears to play a chess game on its own, and the Europeans are its pawns.
There are many already great existing European initiatives to support strategic autonomy and resilience against FIMI threats. But they seem disconnected from the overall strategy and decision-making processes.
Cooperation with the U.S. is key; let’s not be blind. But Europeans need to also develop the rules of the game, not just play it or be played at.
Your Press Corner
Here’s the weekly readings to keep you connected to all the conversation on global elections and information operations:
India Elections 2024: Could Deep Fakes Undermine Trust in Electoral System? (bloomberg.com) - rare interview with an “Indian Deepfaker”. Jadoun and five co-workers need just three days — and 600,000 rupees (about $7,200) — to create and edit an effective AI, using text-to-video systems in a workshop in Pushkar, a small tourist town in the western state of Rajasthan. They use tools like Dall.E, Midjourney, Stable Diffusion and Pika.
Elections 2024 dirty tricks: poster wars spark intimidation and allegations of sabotage ahead of SA’s May 29 polls (dailymaverick.co.za) - The path to the May 29 polls is proving to be a rocky one. The gloves are off, with SA’s political parties accusing one another of poster theft, acts of physical violence and intimidation, and much more.
TikTok announces partnership with IEC to combat misinformation ahead of May elections (polity.org.za) - TikTok announced an in-app Election Centre, no paid political ads and investment in media literacy as its broader strategy to maintain a creative, secure and respectful environment during the electoral period.
DISINFORMATION: Fear of war and demonization of Brussels. Disinformation actors in Slovakia continue to polarize society (freiheit.org) - The Slovak information space is increasingly dominated by narratives that pit the European Union and Russia directly against each other. In addition to the Voice of Europe case, through which Moscow sought to influence the European elections, the glorification of Russia as a selfless liberator and fighter against fascism is also playing a role.
“Countering FIMI and Election Interference in Taiwan: Implications for the EU": report of an event at the European Parliament - Geopolitica.info - Organized by Members of the European Parliament Petras Auštrevičius (Renew Europe), Vladimír Bilčík (EPP), and Markéta Gregorová (Greens), the conference focused on strategies implemented by the Taiwanese government, think tanks, and NGOs against disinformation perpetrated by Beijing.
How media in Taiwan has adapted to combat electoral disinformation | International Journalists' Network (ijnet.org) - As dozens of countries brace for an onslaught of local and foreign digital disinformation campaigns in their elections in 2024, Taiwan’s recent experience offers useful lessons for journalists and democracy defenders elsewhere — as well as some much-needed hope.
France urges social media platforms to increase disinformation monitoring ahead of European elections (lemonde.fr) - Jean-Noël Barrot, minister for Europe at the Foreign Ministry, said two elements could possibly upset the poll on June 9: a high rate of abstentions and foreign interference.
Civil-Society Leaders Assess Big Tech Election-Integrity Efforts in Momentous Election Year | Free Press - In the coming days, Free Press will release specifics from the companies that responded and will share analysis based on years of monitoring Big Tech platforms and vetting their commitments.
Pro-Russian Campaign Exploits Meta’s Failure to Moderate Political Ads - Infosecurity Magazine (infosecurity-magazine.com) - A known network has been targeting EU voters on Meta platforms (Facebook, Instagram, Messenger and Threads) with pro-Russian propaganda in France and Germany, according to a new report by non-profit analytics organization AI Forensics.
Mozilla Foundation Calls on WhatsApp to Combat Misinformation for the Global Elections | Tech Times - "Elections for about half the world's population take place in 2024. But the integrity of these elections is under threat, because WhatsApp isn't doing enough to detect and stop networked disinformation and hate speech on its platform - which can quickly turn into political violence," The Mozilla Foundation said in a statement.
Russia designates Meta an extremist organisation | The Independent - Facebook-owner Meta has been designated an extremist organisation in Russia and the company’s spokesperson sentenced to six years in a penal colony in absentia, according to local reports.
Lithuania moves to ban TV from Russia, Belarus as long as they ‘pose threat’ - LRT - Radio and television programmes produced by companies registered in Russia and Belarus are to be banned in Lithuania for as long as these countries are deemed a threat to national security.
France Proposes New EU Sanctions to Fight Russian Disinformation - Bloomberg - A dedicated regime would target Russian operations globally. Proposal is backed by Netherlands, Poland and Baltic nations
Foreign interference: Presidency reinforces exchange of information ahead of the June 2024 European elections - Consilium (europa.eu) - The Belgian Presidency has decided to activate the Council’s IPCR (Integrated Political Crisis Response) arrangements in information sharing mode on foreign interference in the European elections.
UK Spurs Intelligence Sharing With Allies on Vote Manipulation - Bloomberg - The UK is spearheading a drive to expand intelligence-sharing on electoral interference beyond its Group of Seven allies, as a large swath of the globe heads to the polls in national elections this year, people familiar with the matter said.
Building Resilience Against Election Influence Operations | IFES - The International Foundation for Electoral Systems - an important read on best practices to prepare for elections.
Trump's voter fraud 'prevention' is start of disinformation campaign (usatoday.com) - The Republican National Committee's launch of an election integrity campaign follows a pattern. Donald Trump will lie about past elections while warning of looming fraud.
Nina Jankowicz Forms New Group to Defend Disinformation Research - The New York Times (nytimes.com) - The group intends to fight what its leader, Nina Jankowicz, and others have described as a coordinated campaign by conservatives and their allies to undermine researchers who study disinformation.
Best Practices for Election Coverage Using YouTube – Global Investigative Journalism Network (gijn.org) - best practices from journalists to cover elections using YouTube.
Information warfare threatens integrity and freedom | Buenos Aires Times (batimes.com.ar) - While some nations embrace transparency and open dialogue, others view information as a means of exerting power and control over their citizens.
"Justice Department Launches Updated Voting Rights and Elections Website" - Election Law Blog - As the release discusses, the website includes two new and five updated guidance documents.
NGO convenes workshop to explore AI's impact on Nigeria's future elections | TheCable - Participants at the workshop deliberated on the role of AI in enhancing the conduct of elections in Nigeria and also explored ways to leverage AI in areas such as voter registration, vote counting, election monitoring and countering of fake news and hate speech.
Experts in Tanzania Name Media Literacy As Strategy to Counter Disinformation Ahead of Elections - The Chanzo - They say that it is high time people stopped being passive social media users and became active agents of change.
States Scramble to Block AI Election Meddling | TIME - on the recent efforts by U.S. States to counter AI.
Beware of The Fake Podcast Invite Scam - by Alex Kantrowitz (substack.com) - Legit looking invites can turn into a nightmare as scammers steal would-be podcast guests' online accounts during the tech setup.
Black celebs are causing a stir in the 2024 presidential election - TheGrio - Colbert said non-political experts are “intentionally being platformed because they will parrot perceptions that may or may not be accurate.” She added that celebrities are “just as susceptible to disinformation [and] to right-wing talking points as the average everyday person.”